Video transcript:
David Gardner, co-founder, The Motley Fool: Hey guys, we get to talk to a rule breaker CEO for the next half hour. I'm really delighted to have Chris Diorio from Impinj join us. So that's the focus.
And Nick and Jason, I really enjoyed Industry Focus. Always love your guys' work. Thank you so much.
Nick Sciple, senior analyst, The Motley Fool: Thanks David.
Jason Hall, contract writer, The Motley Fool: Appreciate that, David.
Nick Sciple: See you next time.
David Gardner: All right. Well, thank you, Fools, for joining us this afternoon. I’m delighted to be joined by my long-time fellow analyst at The Motley Fool, Karl Theil, who’s helped out on Rule Breakers from just about the outset, which is 15+ years.
I see now a friendly new face, Chris Diorio, the CEO of Impinj. Chris, welcome to Motley Fool Live.
Chris Diorio, CEO, Impinj: Thank you, David. I really appreciate being here. Thanks for inviting me.
David Gardner: You bet. You know, I want to just start off. Karl has most of the intelligent questions for our half hour together, Chris, but I want to start off with two quick things up front.
First of all, just so everybody knows who's watching. I first picked this stock, ticker symbol PI Impinj in December of 2016. History will show it was approximately $39 a share that day, four years ago or so. I wasn't delighted when a year and a half later it gone from $39 to $12 and even as recently as in the last year, it was kind of in the teens.
I know we're going to talk about this, but I'm really happy to say that Impinj stock today is closer to about $70 a share. So, all of a sudden, we're talking about just an amazing run for this company. Again, Chris is managing the company he co-founded and we're going to talk about that.
But for those of us just shareholders who are watchers, it's been a dynamic story to follow.
So, I want to put that one up front. But my real question to kick it off here, Chris, is I always love hearing the superhero origin stories, especially when we can talk to the person who was there at the founding of the company.
So, Chris, can you tell us a little bit about the story of Carver Mead and how you founded Impinj.
Chris Diorio: Okay, Well, I'd be happy to.
So, I got to tell you that for me at least, the founding of Impinj was a little bit of a surprise.
And you might be shocked to hear that; all of you might be shocked to hear that, but I was a professor at the University of Washington. I had had some prior industry experience, and I had just a couple years at UW, but Carver Mead was my faculty advisor at Caltech.
And one day I told him some of the stuff I was doing at UW, and how it was kind of interesting and could someday lead to some key new technologies that enabled ultra-low-power wireless radios and I said, “Carver, someday this would be a great idea for a company.”
Well, lo and behold through a little bit of deception on his part and then inviting me to meet with some bankers and other sets of folks, all of a sudden, we were on a track to found a company.
It was just at the end of the dotcom bubble burst back in the year 2000. We founded Impinj, raised a bunch of money which got us through that downturn. We really focused the company on those ultra-low-power radios.
And that's where we are today, really, still focused on ultra-low-power radios. Our real calling card is the fact that we can make a little tiny wireless radio that's smaller than a grain of sand.
It's a complete radio on a chip.
It has the entire analog front end, the RF components, the controller, memory, every single thing in a little chip that's so small.
I got to tell you, David, I can't see it. It is that small. I can feel it, but I cannot see it. It's amazing to think that we've made these little, tiny radios that absorb their operating energy from radio waves and can encode a unique identifier for every item on the planet – and so can communicate that information wirelessly. What we're looking at today is extending the reach of the internet by a factor of 1,000.
From today, just connecting powered electronic devices, we're focused on connecting everything – literally every single thing. And we'll talk a little bit more I'm sure as we get going about what I mean by everything, but I mean everything.
Every item of food, every automotive part, every piece of airline baggage, every pharmaceutical, every biospecimen, every apparel item, literally everything. We're talking about connecting everything.
Karl Thiel, analyst, The Motley Fool: Yeah, I noticed you guys had a kind of a big milestone just a week or so back that you had shipped your 50 billionth IC. And I was thinking about that. I was like, that's six or seven for every person on the planet over, I guess counting back, that's the lifetime of the company. So that's 20-ish years.
That's actually not that many. When you think about all of the potential use-cases for RFID, there's just so much more you could end up doing with that.
I'm certainly kind of curious about some of the exciting use cases. I guess maybe start now with how are most of your chips used currently?
Chris Diorio: Sure. We have shipped our 50 billionth and it's an exciting number. The interesting additional data point is that we doubled the number in the past three years.
Three years ago, it was 25 billion.
So, it's not like it is just linear, we just keep shipping these things. The growth pace is accelerating. The industry CAGR, unit volume CAGR, across our industry is between 25% and 30%.
So, we are seeing good growth and continued and scaled growth. So today, probably the majority of our endpoint ICs go on retail apparel items. They go into price labels, some get sewn into the care label that you can cut out, but most of them are in the price label.
Retailers use those endpoint ICs for inventory visibility. With COVID-19 hitting, the retailers that had visibility into their inventory – and I will get to in a second just how they do the inventory visibility – but the retailers that had inventory visibility associated with having RAIN RFID identifiers on their items, allowed those retailers to pivot quickly, sell their items, either buy online/pick up in store or ship from store, and in general, were more successful during COVID 19 than those who did not.
And yeah, our endpoint IC volumes were up 4.8% for the year, even though retail apparel was down by more than 20%.
Karl Theil: There is a real tendency towards apparel, right? Is it more apparel than other retail items?
Chris Diorio: Today it's more apparel than other retail items, but that's simply as a consequence of where we started from.
So, if you go back in time, retail apparel before RAIN RFID was...inventory visibility in stores was probably about 65%. You put a wireless identifier into the price label and literally there's one of our chips mounted on a little aluminum antenna laminated inside the price label which you can cut up and throw away after you buy the item so it's inside that price label with that chip in there.
A store employee can go out with a handheld reader into the store, and in a very short time inventory the entire store. Just waving the handheld reader around, you can read up to about 200 items per second. You get the unique identity of every single item. You take your inventory visibility up above 95%. You know what you've got absolutely in those stores because you read it and therefore you can turn your stores into performance centers.
David Gardner: Isn't that a remarkable pivot? That is remarkable. I realize, I want to zoom out just briefly because we're rocking some acronyms which some of our members will instantly recognize: IC...I read as “integrated circuit.” RFID is radio frequency identification.
But not everybody who's watching us right now, over 1000 people, know exactly what we're talking about. So, let's just reset briefly.
What attracted me to Chris's company, into this stock as a potential rule breaker for our members, is this idea – he's already been speaking to it – that you can tag lots of stuff really cheaply. RFID tags are really, really cheap.
This company enables partners and customers to keep track from a platform of all of their assets, all of their inventory.
We're talking a lot about apparel right now, and a lot of us know those little tags that we cut off the shirt when we buy it. So it's remarkable to me, Chris. Getting back to where we were, that you can just walk around waving this thing and have an inventory of the entire store because it’s taking in 200 things a second, so we can see the power of the so-called Internet of Things, a buzzword that can be overused.
But this is the attraction of a company like Impinj — its prospect of being a leader in this space and helping people track stuff.
Chris Diorio: Yes, and I'm incredibly excited. Just to set the stage a little bit. So yes when I'm talking about ICs, it's integrated circuits. We make a little tiny radio on a chip.
We're really talking about the Internet of Things. When I say the Internet of Things, like I said before, it's not just connecting powered electronic devices, we're talking about connecting everything, extending the Internet to everything, hence the Internet of Things.
RFID is a fairly broad term, it's not as broad as saying radio. Your hotel key card has RFID in it. Your phone has NFC RFID in it. And there’s other types of RFID that are used on livestock.
We do a certain type of RFID called RAIN for “radio identification” that has some unique attributes.
Read range of up to about 30 feet, not line-of-sight, can read up to 1,000 items per second in an incredibly efficient and low-cost way that allows us to get the price point of the IC and the size of the IC and the consequent price points of the IC and the antenna it goes on, which is about half the size of my pinky, down to just a few cents.
And at a few cents, it's cost-effective, for example, for retailers to put those radios, miniature radios, on every apparel item.
For shippers to put them on pallets and boxes, for marathon bibs – to have them embedded in marathon bibs so when you run your race you get timing, for Top Golf to put the ICs inside golf balls. So, when you hit your golf ball, you get scored, and I know you hit the golf ball because that ball is signed out to you. For airlines, for example, Delta Airlines put the IC in the luggage tag to track your bag, you get your 'track my bags' app and then at the end of your trip you discard the luggage tag and throw it away. So that is the vision of this certain type of RFID, as I said it's called RAIN for radio identification.
And it's different from most other types of RFID by its long-range, low-cost, not line-of-sight, and the ability to connect literally everything at high speed.
Karl Theil: I was actually going to ask you a different question, but that does just raise something for me quickly, which is how has the cost curve of these bent over maybe the lifetime of Impinj or maybe over a different period, but I would say one thing is that I see these RFID tags used often in apparel, and a lot of other places I go, people still tend to use barcodes. You have to imagine that barcodes are always going to be cheaper, but you're talking about a few cents. That's really not very much, and I just wonder what the cost curve has looked like.
Chris Diorio: So I'm going to hit both of those questions one at a time, the cost of the barcode and then the cost of the ICs that go on items and actually the cost of adding the identifier to the item.
Yes, the barcode is incredibly inexpensive. You just print it; it costs essentially nothing, but the labor costs are high.
I remember years ago when we were first doing work on RAIN RFID, we had retailers telling me that their labor cost associated with a barcode was more than a dime.
Just because it takes people to read the thing, hence you do self-checkout in grocery stores.
And I'd love to come back to that self-checkout thing in a minute because I'll tell you about some self-checkout using RAIN RFID. But I firmly believe that the cost of RAIN RFID is lower than that of barcodes when you factor in the labor costs allowing you to allocate that labor to be doing more efficient things in either inventory or checkout.
Over time, the cost of the IC with the antenna has come down significantly. When we first got going and really actually introduced with our partners the first products...we just sell the IC; our partners attach the ICs onto the antenna. Call it 12 years ago, the cost was around 15 cents.
End-users had set a bogey, and said if you can get down to a five-cent incremental cost. We can tag all pallets, cases, and certain items, for example, retail apparel. And you know what? It was right.
When we got down to that five cent, we're actually below five cent now; it's a couple of cents, call it somewhere between three and five.
There's probably 10 to 15 billion apparel items being connected every year. Billions of other items, things that are shipped all over the planet. Hence the numbers. We're talking about Impinj having shipped 50 billion items.
There's another bogey that the industry has put in front of us. That bogey was led by METI, the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry in Japan. But it's been buoyed by other companies making similar statements: That if you can get down to a one and a half cent incremental cost for the IC plus the antenna, you can connect everything on the planet.
Everything. Every food item, every item in a retail store, every automotive item, everything. Literally trillions of items per year.
Then you might say 'Well, Chris, how do you make money?” Well, you know what? I'll take a trillion pennies per year.
Karl Theil: So if I'm understanding you correctly, it sounds like you're two to three X off of that.
Chris Diorio: Right
Karl Theil: Yea, so, is that possible? Do you think you can get there?
Chris Diorio: I believe it is possible.
Karl Theil: And are you willing to offer a timeline?
Chris Diorio: I am not willing to offer a timeline because there's a bunch of innovation and invention that has to happen to get us there.
But as you look out in time, you see there's nothing in our way. There's nothing fundamental in our way.
I'd love to be able to give you a timeline, but really one of the key things that needs to happen is that the IC needs to be less of an add-on and more as an integrated part of the item or of its packaging.
So, think about today, somebody takes our IC, puts it on an antenna, the backside of the antenna is sticky; it's on Mylar paper, and they stick it onto a box.
Okay, great. Well, that costs money. I see the future as the IC just being embedded and part of the cardboard, in food items being a part of the packaging.
When we get the technology where we can actually do the embedding, where the ICs and a little itty-bitty antenna are embedded into the packaging, then the cost will come way down. And as the volumes go up, the cost is going to come down anyway. So, I don't see any fundamental reason we can't get there.
But I'm not offering a timeline and I'm saying just to everybody on the call, there's a lot of invention, a lot of innovating that has to happen to get there. But I believe it is doable.
David Gardner: Well, we like companies and we like leaders who think forward, and as investors, when we're right about that, we can be wildly right, and certainly, it was a delight to sign in this morning, check the performance of our Impinj stock recommendation from 2016.
Chris, I don't know how well you know our organization, but we tend to buy and rarely sell.
So, we're the long game players here at The Motley Fool, and it was somewhat ironic and a little delightful to notice that the stock was up 88.1% since recommendation and the S&P 500 over that exact same period is up also exactly 88.1%.
So, while the stock had lost two-thirds of its value at one point, we're now right back on the market and my golly has it skyrocketed. I want to talk about that in a little bit. Just any perceptions you have. But I want to leave the stock briefly. I want to leave technology briefly.
And let's just talk about your company, entrepreneurship, company culture. You have been there from the outset. I believe you all are still based in and around Seattle, Washington. Am I right about that?
Chris Diorio: We are.
David Gardner: Excellent.
Karl, by the way. Thank you for tuning in from Austin, Texas, because not every Texan can lean in hard in the way that you are. So, I'm really glad to have you with us today.
Karl Theil: I just want to say I lived in the Pacific Northwest for years and there's not many times when you're like I really miss February weather in the Pacific Northwest.
This is one of those times.
David Gardner: So fortunately, Karl's electricity has held up so far, and I'm delighted to have you.
Chris, I'm just curious. How many employees do you have? If you were to describe your company culture in a few words or sentences...I'd love to hear anything there.
And then maybe one quick reflection from you as the CEO in terms of what's changed over the years.
Chris Diorio: So, the number of employees is a little over 300. Company culture, I'd say, is embodied by a set of principles that you can find on our website.
But the number one principle is respect. Respect for each other, respect for our partners, and even respect for our competitors. We're driven by being candid, honest, humble people. We think big, we think really big, we think bigger than anybody.
We think big, yet, at the same time, we respect all on our path, we’re driven to succeed, and if you look at our principles, you'll see that the last principle on our principles pages is a saying attributable to (George S.) Patton: “Tell people where to go, not how to get there, and you'll be amazed by the results.”
So that really is our company culture and how we drive forward. And we're excited about the future. We're excited about our opportunity, we’re just getting going.
If you think about where our industry is, just as a whole, the industry in total delivered about 18.5 billion endpoint ICs in 2019. We don't have the number for 2020 yet.
The total opportunity, when you think of all the items I've talked about, call it 10 trillion per year. We are way less than 1% penetrated. And Impinj is the only company in this space with the platform.
We have the endpoint ICs that go on the items. We have reader ICs that go into partner readers. We have fixed readers and gateways that are really high-performing systems that we go to market with through our partners.
We have software that resides on those readers and gateways that solves problems, for example, self-checkout and loss prevention.
And we are starting now to talk about services. For example, if you put a cryptographic engine on one of the endpoint ICs and put a key in it, you can actually have a service that authenticates items and puts a dent in counterfeits, and that's a real way of thinking about the opportunity.
If you can put something smart – a chip – onto an item, you make the item smart, and you can track the identity, location, and authenticity of that item.
And you can use the chip, the ID in the chip, as a pointer to the cloud and say, I'm just a number, but here's where you go to get more information about me, the item.” And then the cloud will have in it the history and links and the ownership of that item.
So, it really truly is the case that our vision is to connect every item to the cloud and have the IC be a pointer to where to get more information about that item and essentially create this connected world that has incredible value today to enterprises, but in the future to people.
And one of the things I say in all my company meetings and everything is: Our goal at the end of the day is we're going to make the world a better place. And we really are.
David Gardner: Thank you, Chris, and I appreciate your points about respect.
I'm assuming that comes from the CEO, although a lot of core values are usually created by a whole collaborative group like your whole company, but in the spirit of respect and thinking about respect for competition, which is a great way of framing it.
It's not a dog-eat-dog world out there, but we do compete. Business is competitive. And I'm curious as you think about competition, do you see greater competition coming from either A: fellow RFID platforms, the RFID crowd; or B: the barcode scanning people...Zebra Technologies has been a successful stock pic for us at The Motley Fool. Is that more competitive potentially or are your other competitors? Or is there a 'C' answer that I'm missing?
Chris Diorio: Okay, so it's not 'B' because I firmly believe that a barcode or QR code will always be on an item. It's just going to be a backup for the chip.
Right? If something was ever to happen to the chip...it gets broken, the antenna gets broken, you can't read it, you have a barcode as a backup. But you save the cost because you're not reading the barcode. So it’s not ‘B.’
It is either ‘A’, fellow RAIN RFID competitors or new entrants in the space or potentially other companies who see the overall opportunity in RAIN RFID and want to jump in.
I believe we are incredibly well-positioned by our intellectual property portfolio by the fact that we've got this platform, that the fact that we're tying the platform layers together and building competitive moats around what we do both with our ecosystem and with our platform, but I believe it's really going to be other competitors coming in or existing competitors in the space.
There's one that...and I often get this question...Is there a 'D?' Could there be other technologies that could supplant RAIN and would be better for connecting items?
And the answer to that kind of question is, I don't think there really is. I don't know of any other technology that can connect an item for pennies at a range up to 30 feet, without a battery, without line-of-sight and can read 1,000 items per second and for which we can put out trillions per year.
I don't know; I personally don't know of anything on the horizon.
Karl Theil: I have a good friend who works at Visa who always insists to me it's like the biggest competitor to Visa is not MasterCard, it is cash.
You know, in another sense saying, it is people who don't choose to use the product, and it seems like that is for you guys sort of an issue.
It's, you know, I've looked at all these great use cases for RFID, some really cool stuff that I've seen talked about like, you know, you put a tag in a piece of clothing and you cut that off and you get home and you throw it away but maybe you don't, right?
Maybe it stays in a label, and you have a smart washing machine that reads instructions about how to wash the clothes. Great ideas like that.
Things that are embedded in mirrors that read tags that give you ideas about what else you might try with this outfit in a changing room at a store.
Or retail shops that simply check out all your items for you. You just grab what you want in a store, throw it in the basket, it just reads it on the way out, you just kind of walk out with it, it reads it, it charges you.
All these things are so cool, and yet a lot of it's not happening, or at least it's not happening in the U.S., and I wonder what you think is kind of holding it back, if you do see it picking up more momentum elsewhere and it's just a matter of time here?
Chris Diorio: Okay, I'll do my best there. That was a broad question. I'll do my best to tackle it. Some of the answer to your question is: It's a matter of time.
So, I'm going to give you two very specific examples.
In Japan, I went to a Uniqlo store. Uniqlo has self-checkout registers. You pick up a couple of items, you bring them to the self-checkout register. A pile of items – they don't have to be oriented in any way, not one at a time or anything, just a pile of items, drop them on the checkout register. The checkout register reads the items, instantly populates the screen with the items there. You hit the green button, says yes, you tap your suite card, you walk out of the store. It completely works.
In France, I went to a Decathlon Go store. Walk into the store...I didn't have the app, so the person I was with tapped his phone...but you walk into the store, you pick up the item. He said, “Try this out, put it in your jacket.” So I pick up an item, stuck it in my coat pocket, walked out of the store – just straight walked out – and he got charged for it. Fortunately, I didn't get charged. He got charged, he bought it for me.
But yeah, I mean those things exist and they are working today. And depending on the particular company, not so much the part of the world but the particular company, they're being driven forward.
So, any innovative changes like this take time. It takes innovative enterprises to push them forward.
And we see it kind of all across the planet and I expect you will see some of those capabilities coming to stores near you and coming to opportunities near you. And hopefully, in the near future. I can't predict the ,but I know these things actually work and I'm really excited about them.
There is one area that I want to see in the future which is people – individual people like you and me – directly getting the benefit from RAIN-tagged items. You can do that with your Delta "track my bags” app today, but you are not reading the item yourself.
Your washing machine is not reading your item. You don't directly today have the benefit of RAIN-tagged items. To get to that spot, we need really three things.
Number 1, we need to be able to embed the IC in the item so it lasts for the life of the item. For example in your clothing, if you want it to last for the life of the item, we actually need washable tags. There are companies that make those today, but innovation still has to happen.
Number 2, we need to protect your privacy. In our most recent product, we introduced a capability called protected mode that protects your privacy so that your items are only readable with your PIN, an eight-character PIN. That should address the privacy issue.
And then Number 3, once we've got those things done, suppliers of that equipment need to drive the use cases associated with a washing machine, which means they need to get the data when you throw the items in the washing machine and it self-sets the cycle, that washing machine needs to be able to get the data on how to do the wash.
That third part is probably the longest pole in the tent, surprisingly enough. But I believe the future will come where your appliances or your cupboard or your refrigerator can get information about the items based on reading them. And then we'll see a profound change in the future. Like I said, making the world a better place.
David Gardner: Thank you for that, Chris.
And let me just do a quick time check. We've got four more minutes with the CEO of Impinj, and coming up right afterward, we're going to have Sonali Divilek, who's the head of product for Marcus, that's Goldman Sachs's product.
Matt Frankel will be interviewing Sonali.
So, Chris, just a couple of minutes left with you. Of course, we always have lots more questions than we can ask from our members. A couple really quick, quick ones for you.
One is profitability. So, you're still at a stage where you're beating Wall Street estimates but still losing money. So, the inevitable question about when do you see profit, and – or if you'd also speak to just – what do you think of the stock and what's been happening recently? It's just been a spectacular performance for your company, and how does that feel?
Chris Diorio: Okay, well, the answer to the latter question is, it feels good, although I'm going to tell you I don't look at the stock price every day. I look at what it takes to just drive the company forward. We've seen a lot of volatility in our stock associated with COVID-19.
More recently, you know, with retail, if you look at our core industries, what got hit the hardest? Retail. Aviation. Those are some of the industries we drive into. So, everybody was expecting the worst for us.
What we did during the downturn is we invested into it because during a downturn is the time where you can hire good people, where you can get the equipment and things you need. You can start to build inventory.
We did all of that stuff during the downturn, expecting it to be a short-lived downturn, and it turned out, I hope, we'll be right – it looks like we will be right – but that is indeed the case. My goal was to come out the other side of this downturn stronger.
So that's how I think about the stock: We're just going to drive the company forward every single day. In terms of profitability, we were adjusted EBITDA break even in 2019 or a little bit above that; we've charted a path to get back to it.
2020 was of course a difficult year associated with COVID-19, especially right in the midst of it, Q2 and Q3. We had a very strong Q1. That Q1 shows what the company can do as revenue comes up, and we can basically drive scale on top of our existing op-ex.
And so, we are driving back to adjusted EBITDA break even, we're not today focused on going much beyond that, because our goal is to invest in this opportunity.
It's so early days; it makes sense to invest, and we're driving the long view to win this opportunity to connect every item on the planet.
David Gardner: Thank you for that.
Karl, you got one last question. What do you got?
Karl Theil: Well, I guess one thing that just amazes me about Impinj is actually how rich the gross margin is. They, you know, manage to sell these things even at pennies. They're still getting a good gross margin on it.
But I do wonder, you know, that seems like there is an opportunity to kind of build margin around services, some of the things you were talking about with encrypting things, or you know, potentially other services just around making the ICs themselves, and there's not much time, but I wonder if you have any thoughts on that?
Chris Diorio: Yes, so we don't have any services that we've brought out as offerings today, but we see it as an opportunity for the future. We really see an opportunity. We as a company are, it's highly unlikely we're going to be managing retailers' data, but we're providing the IC, we're providing information in the IC, we're doing the readers. We see an opportunity to provide value-added services around the items’ location or authenticity, and potentially going forward even around some ownership or ownership transfers that could be of real value.
And we intend to really focus on those areas and see what we are able to monetize so I want for all the viewers, I’d like you to take away that we're not just interested in semiconductors — sure, we do semiconductors, it's a core part of our revenue, our endpoint ICs, our reader ICs.
But we're really focused around the Internet of Things and we're going to drive new growth, new opportunities, new businesses, and monetize every part of that Internet of Things that makes sense for us.
And with the rest, we're going to be driving our platform, ecosystem, all of our partners to deliver whole products into multiple industries. That's our focus as a company and to the extent services play out for us, we're all in.
David Gardner: Well, Chris Diorio, CEO of Impinj. Thank you very much. We’re behind you. You’ve got a lot of shareholders watching you right now, and a lot of people who had not previously heard of your company and we’re all playing the long game.
Just as I first recommended your stocks more than four years ago, we’re just sitting tight and cheering you on and hoping that this technology keeps adding value to the world.
So thank you for what you’re doing and best wishes.
Chris Diorio: Thank you David. Thanks for your kind words and thanks for having me here today. I really appreciate it.